In 2025, Dubai‘s commercial property market experienced a remarkable surge, with sales soaring nearly 80% compared to the previous year. This impressive growth signals a potential transformation within the sector, where a two-tier office market may emerge as new Grade A properties begin to alter pricing dynamics and tenant preferences. As the city continues to thrive, the implications for commercial real estate are profound and wide-ranging.
The Surge in Commercial Property Sales
During the first 11 months of 2025, Dubai’s commercial property sales value skyrocketed by an astounding 77.9% year on year, reaching AED 15.5 billion. The number of transactions also climbed significantly, increasing by 35.1%, resulting in a total of 5,364 deals. This robust performance reflects a broader strength in Dubai’s real estate market, which has witnessed record achievements in its residential sector as well.
Impending Structural Changes in the Office Sector
Despite this impressive growth, key market figures caution that Dubai’s office sector is on the brink of a significant shift. Firas Al Msaddi, chief executive of fäm Properties, pointed out that the commercial market has fallen behind residential real estate in embracing modern design and construction practices. “Since 2008, Dubai has not seen a real new generation of office buildings,” he stated.
Al Msaddi noted that in contrast to the residential market, which has undergone a transformative change with innovative design languages and higher luxury standards, the office sector has remained stagnant. He anticipates that the first batch of next-generation Grade A offices will start becoming available in 2028, marking a pivotal moment for the industry.
“That will be the moment of truth, as we see how secondary offices perform when tenants finally have modern, efficient, architecturally relevant options,” Al Msaddi explained. He predicts that the disparity between old and new properties will widen, leading to a recalibration of the commercial market around quality. This shift will establish a two-tier office market, where older structures face increasing pressure as new Grade A properties secure higher price points.
Commercial Property Activity Breakdown
In terms of market activity, office properties dominated the commercial sector, accounting for AED 11.2 billion in sales across 4,012 transactions. Retail units followed closely, generating AED 3.8 billion from 1,321 deals, while smaller volumes were noted in showrooms, warehouses, and other specialized properties such as clinics and gyms.
Al Msaddi cited Vision Tower in Business Bay as indicative of the sustained demand for high-quality office spaces. “It has consistently outperformed the market because it attracts real, established corporates,” he remarked. “The smallest unit is a half-floor, which naturally filters for serious companies, and the performance of that building tells you exactly how strong true Grade A demand really is.”
Future Outlook for Dubai’s Commercial Market
The dramatic uptick in commercial property sales aligns with a record-breaking year for Dubai’s residential sector, which saw 197,263 transactions worth AED 624.1 billion, surpassing the entirety of 2024’s results with a month still to go. Analysts believe that ongoing economic expansion, increasing business activity, and a finite supply of modern office spaces are driving near-term demand. As new developments are added later this decade, the valuation landscape for commercial property in the emirate is poised for a significant redefinition.