The ongoing Saudi-UAE dispute, often interpreted through the lens of the conflict in Yemen, has deeper roots that extend far beyond the borders of this war-torn country. The recent tensions have illuminated a complex relationship characterized by diverging interests, intertwined geopolitical ambitions, and a growing mistrust between the two Gulf powers. As the Saudi-UAE rift continues to unfold, it becomes increasingly evident that the story did not begin in Yemen.
Heightened Tensions Following Military Actions
The withdrawal of UAE forces from Yemen after an aerial assault by the Saudi-led coalition on the Yemeni port of Mukalla could potentially ease conflicts between the two nations. However, this incident has underscored the deepening mistrust between the Gulf oil giants, whose disagreements have persisted for years.
Just hours after the airstrike, calls surged for the complete withdrawal of UAE troops from Yemen, as Saudi Arabia emphasized that its national security is a “red line.” Conversely, the UAE expressed surprise at the airstrike and maintained that it was voluntarily withdrawing its remaining forces from Yemen.
This crisis was exacerbated by a sudden advance of UAE-backed separatists in southern Yemen earlier in December, reigniting longstanding divisions between the two countries over various contentious issues ranging from oil shares to geopolitical influence.
According to a Gulf source cited by Reuters, the escalation stemmed from a misunderstanding during discussions held in Washington last November between Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and former U.S. President Donald Trump regarding the conflict in Sudan. High-level talks, which included phone calls between Saudi and Emirati officials in December, have yet to yield significant outcomes.
The Yemen Conflict: A Complex Landscape
In December, the Southern Transitional Council, supported by the UAE, launched a surprise offensive, capturing extensive territories in Yemen, including the strategically vital Hadhramaut province. This council was previously a key participant in the coalition fighting alongside the internationally recognized Yemeni government against Iranian-backed Houthi forces controlling Sana’a and northwest Yemen.
The council’s offensive has brought it closer to Yemen’s border with Saudi Arabia, placing both nations at opposite ends of a growing rift. Saudi Arabia and the UAE have claimed to be engaging with Yemeni groups to contain the situation; however, the coalition has carried out airstrikes in Hadhramaut in recent days.
The Southern Transitional Council has rebuffed calls from the Saudi-led coalition to withdraw from the territories it now controls. The UAE, in a recent statement, asserted that it has sought to de-escalate tensions since the council’s advance and denied any involvement in actions that would undermine Saudi Arabia’s security or target its borders.
Sudan: An Emerging Point of Contention
Neil Quilliam from Chatham House noted that the relationship between Saudi Arabia and the UAE has never been simple, and recent tensions have intensified significantly in the past year, becoming apparent in various arenas. Sudan has emerged as one such arena, grappling with war and its worst humanitarian crisis since April 2023.
The quartet group, comprised of Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the United States, and the UAE, is leading diplomatic mediation efforts to resolve the conflict, though hostilities persist unabated. Experts from the United Nations and U.S. Congress members have accused the UAE of supporting the Rapid Support Forces engaged in violent confrontations with the Sudanese army; however, Abu Dhabi has denied backing either side.
During a meeting in Washington last November, Trump and bin Salman discussed the Sudan issue. A Gulf source informed Reuters that Emirati officials felt angered upon receiving “misleading information” suggesting that during this meeting, the Saudi Crown Prince did not just request additional sanctions against the Rapid Support Forces but also sought direct sanctions against the UAE due to alleged support for these forces. This misunderstanding has contributed to escalating tensions in Yemen.
The UAE Foreign Ministry has neither confirmed nor denied this account, instead reiterating its commitment to supporting security and stability in Yemen in a response to Reuters.
Could a New Crisis Emerge?
On Saturday, Anwar Gargash, the diplomatic advisor to the UAE President, called for dialogue and the innovation of political solutions, emphasizing the need to preserve friendships and alliances during this critical phase. He did not directly reference Yemen or Saudi Arabia in his remarks.
The Gulf region has seen turmoil in the past. In 2017, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain, Oman, and Egypt imposed an economic blockade on Qatar, accusing Doha of supporting terrorism—a claim that Qatar vehemently denied.
However, the current wave of discord does not appear poised to culminate in a repeat of the “Qatar crisis.” Emirati academic Abdul Khaleq Abdallah remarked, “We have 100% disagreements regarding Yemen; the level of dispute has increased with the current escalation,” yet he added, “Allies collide… but they mend their differences and build on what unites them.”